Comments on: Chance of life developing in the universe http://undefined.com/ia/2008/04/18/chance-of-life-developing-in-the-universe/ Agile & Open Source Software, Economics, Liberty and Entrepreneurship Fri, 08 Aug 2008 21:04:04 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Walter R. Moore http://undefined.com/ia/2008/04/18/chance-of-life-developing-in-the-universe/#comment-387993 Walter R. Moore Fri, 18 Apr 2008 15:58:34 +0000 http://undefined.com/ia/2008/04/18/chance-of-life-developing-in-the-universe/#comment-387993 Ancillary to my ancillary: what proportion of intelligent life survives past the moment where it can destroy itself through war or by over-consuming planetary resources? We desperately need a control group for that experiment, but we only have one test subject so far. Ancillary to my ancillary: what proportion of intelligent life survives past the moment where it can destroy itself through war or by over-consuming planetary resources?

We desperately need a control group for that experiment, but we only have one test subject so far.

]]> By: Walter R. Moore http://undefined.com/ia/2008/04/18/chance-of-life-developing-in-the-universe/#comment-387986 Walter R. Moore Fri, 18 Apr 2008 15:56:32 +0000 http://undefined.com/ia/2008/04/18/chance-of-life-developing-in-the-universe/#comment-387986 My ancillary was always: "well, where is everybody?" followed by "well, how old is the Universe, and what numbers should we plug into the Drake Equation?" followed by "what if everybody else, once their culture matures, stops broadcasting anything because they all use fiber etc." So, the more recent estimates of the age of the universe.. 2-2.5 times the age of our solar system, put things in a new light. There could be 4500 planets developing intelligent life, in that case, and it could just happen that none of them started blasting TV signals of their Olympic games into space at the right time for us to see the signals. If the Universe was very old we ought to be awash in evidence of other civilizations.. or not, depending on the odds. My ancillary was always: “well, where is everybody?” followed by “well, how old is the Universe, and what numbers should we plug into the Drake Equation?” followed by “what if everybody else, once their culture matures, stops broadcasting anything because they all use fiber etc.”

So, the more recent estimates of the age of the universe.. 2-2.5 times the age of our solar system, put things in a new light. There could be 4500 planets developing intelligent life, in that case, and it could just happen that none of them started blasting TV signals of their Olympic games into space at the right time for us to see the signals.

If the Universe was very old we ought to be awash in evidence of other civilizations.. or not, depending on the odds.

]]>