- Don’t bet against human ingenuity. If your prediction involves the concept that “people will never be able to overcome this challenge”, you’re wrong.
- Don’t bet against the laws of physics. Duh. Except that sometimes, humans manage to find loopholes.
- Don’t misunderstand what people want. People don’t want cars. They want a way to get to where they want to go. They don’t want “music from popular artists” - they want to look “with it.” - Don’t build trend predictions based on the wrong thing.
- Don’t bet against the law of supply and demand. It’s like arguing against evolution - it just makes you look dumb.
- Don’t bet against long term trends - they are long term trends for a reason. Just make sure (re #3) that you understand the actual trend.
- Don’t bet against people acting in their own self interest. People look out for themselves and their families first. That’s not going to change.
- Don’t confuse a technology with an application - the word is full of technologies that are impossible/impractical to use.
- People always overestimate what can be accomplished in one year, and underestimate what can be accomplished in 5. So be safe, and assume it will take 3 years.
- If your prediction involves more than two critical coincidences, it’s almost certainly not going to happen.
- Even a blind pig finds an acorn once in a while. If you make an outlandish prediction that turns out to be true, it doesn’t mean you’re smart. It means you’re lucky.
August 26, 2007
Suggestions for Prognosticators
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